JMN
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(an admission from the outset. My brain is messy right now and I just had to voice wrestle with someone over 70 who still plans to do whatever whenever while we're under 'stay home' and, of course, they have health issues. So if you think I'm more weird and stuff than normal, you're right and it's not personal. Just had to put this out there in hope and in case it helps someone else with a reluctant to stay home family member who needs to stay home.)
So, yeah, what's the deal here. There's less than 200,000 confirmed US persons with COVID-19 So what. It's a respiratory bug. Like the flu.
The flu kills lots of people every year, but millions get it, so I'll be fine.
So Italy. (using 2010 to keep numbers 'fair')
2010 census says 60340328
They're still in the the weeds on this. But have
105,792 Confirmed cases.
105,792 Cases / 60,340,328 People = 0.001753 = .1753%
What? Really? It only took less than 2 per 1000 of the population getting it to put their hospitals in super overload? Yea. Really.
US. 2010 census says 308,745,538
Our US number if we make it to the same place?
541,230 Cases
We now have (midnight 3/31-4/1)
188,172
Tuesday of Last week? We had only
55,311
This is an exponential growth curve. Yeah, keep hearing that, but so what? Each person, on average, infects 2 more people. Think about that a second.
2>4>8 so what, right? Well that's just 14 people total! Big deal. yawn. Try 20,000>40,000>80,000. 140,000 people.
200,000>400,000>800,000? We have almost 200,000 right now...
We added over 25,000 on March 31st alone. Sooo in less than 2 weeks we'll have 50,000 known new cases in a day? Yeah. Probably.
Unless we wash our hands, quit touching our face, and keep away from each other.
All things we have not been doing or these 'stay at home orders' would not be needed!
Keep in mind, we're barely testing.
I know both DDS and MD who got symptoms and were not allowed to get the test. So those tested are probably pretty bad off. The MD? He's been tested now. He's positive. They waited till he couldn't breathe to test him. DDS? They are still on self quarantine. Both were exposed 2nd or 3rd 'hand' to known positives. We'll see.
Well. Here's the other really big part of the problem. With the flu, you usually get over it in about 4 days with some fluids and sleep. With this one, many over 40ish and up need a vent. Most who need one need it for about 2 weeks, but you can assume 1 week if you like. (I'll be happy to go with better data if you want to refute these numbers with some you found. I been readin' too much and can't remember where it all came from)
How many vents we got? maaaaybe 170,000 if we're being really generous with the number.
177,000/308,745,538 That's 0.57 per 1000.
Hope you get sick where they have more than they're using.
How many ICU beds we got? 2.7 per 1000.
Problem here? You better get sick where there is a free bed. AND you better not need many of those beds for car wrecks, heart emergencies...
(a locality snapshot. My community has about 110,000 people. At .17/1000 that's 187 people. We have 200 hospital beds total)
There is one other number that need to be thought about
Number of trained Ventilator Operators. These things are not blood pressure cuffs. They need trained personnel to keep you from dying when you have one on you. It breathes for you.
Population data: Wikipedia and Italy's government.
COVID-19 patient data: http://coronavirus.1point3acres.com
ICU beds & Vent numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
Vent numbers: https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...re-hospitals/F1FDBACA53531F2A150D6AD8E96F144D
Alright. There's my rant. I'm drained. Stay safe friends. Edit: Stay safe even if you don't call me friend.
edit:vents per 1000 was done really wrong
So, yeah, what's the deal here. There's less than 200,000 confirmed US persons with COVID-19 So what. It's a respiratory bug. Like the flu.
The flu kills lots of people every year, but millions get it, so I'll be fine.
So Italy. (using 2010 to keep numbers 'fair')
2010 census says 60340328
They're still in the the weeds on this. But have
105,792 Confirmed cases.
105,792 Cases / 60,340,328 People = 0.001753 = .1753%
What? Really? It only took less than 2 per 1000 of the population getting it to put their hospitals in super overload? Yea. Really.
US. 2010 census says 308,745,538
Our US number if we make it to the same place?
541,230 Cases
We now have (midnight 3/31-4/1)
188,172
Tuesday of Last week? We had only
55,311
This is an exponential growth curve. Yeah, keep hearing that, but so what? Each person, on average, infects 2 more people. Think about that a second.
2>4>8 so what, right? Well that's just 14 people total! Big deal. yawn. Try 20,000>40,000>80,000. 140,000 people.
200,000>400,000>800,000? We have almost 200,000 right now...
We added over 25,000 on March 31st alone. Sooo in less than 2 weeks we'll have 50,000 known new cases in a day? Yeah. Probably.
Unless we wash our hands, quit touching our face, and keep away from each other.
All things we have not been doing or these 'stay at home orders' would not be needed!
Keep in mind, we're barely testing.
I know both DDS and MD who got symptoms and were not allowed to get the test. So those tested are probably pretty bad off. The MD? He's been tested now. He's positive. They waited till he couldn't breathe to test him. DDS? They are still on self quarantine. Both were exposed 2nd or 3rd 'hand' to known positives. We'll see.
Well. Here's the other really big part of the problem. With the flu, you usually get over it in about 4 days with some fluids and sleep. With this one, many over 40ish and up need a vent. Most who need one need it for about 2 weeks, but you can assume 1 week if you like. (I'll be happy to go with better data if you want to refute these numbers with some you found. I been readin' too much and can't remember where it all came from)
How many vents we got? maaaaybe 170,000 if we're being really generous with the number.
177,000/308,745,538 That's 0.57 per 1000.
Hope you get sick where they have more than they're using.
How many ICU beds we got? 2.7 per 1000.
Problem here? You better get sick where there is a free bed. AND you better not need many of those beds for car wrecks, heart emergencies...
(a locality snapshot. My community has about 110,000 people. At .17/1000 that's 187 people. We have 200 hospital beds total)
There is one other number that need to be thought about
Number of trained Ventilator Operators. These things are not blood pressure cuffs. They need trained personnel to keep you from dying when you have one on you. It breathes for you.
Population data: Wikipedia and Italy's government.
COVID-19 patient data: http://coronavirus.1point3acres.com
ICU beds & Vent numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
Vent numbers: https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...re-hospitals/F1FDBACA53531F2A150D6AD8E96F144D
Alright. There's my rant. I'm drained. Stay safe friends. Edit: Stay safe even if you don't call me friend.
edit:vents per 1000 was done really wrong
Last edited:
I wish everyone and their families good health.
